On small Bayesian updates
Today I was walking home from dental x-rays (having taken a large detour to walk by the riverside) listening to the latest episode of the excellent Practical Stoicism podcast , where the topic of atheism was touched up upon. It got me tempted to write an entry about atheism and identity or something a bit broader, but it also got me thinking about the empirical question about the existence of God (an old favorite and a topic for yet another blog post). The crux of the matter is this: If we suppose an involved personal God, that theory makes predictions clearly different from predictions made by atheism/naturalism such as effectiveness of prayer in treating disease, and proposes experiments such as those described in Kings 18:16-40 : suffice to say most believers wouldn't dare to put these to the test. If we suppose a God that no longer interacts with the world or never did, this theory makes the exact same predictions as naturalism, but loses HARD due to the immense complexity pena...